Total Vehicle Miles

Growth in total vehicle miles slowed significantly from 2005 through 2007 after consistently outpacing the increase in vehicle registrations in previous years. This slowdown can be attributed to the high price of oil observed over the same period, as consumers and businesses looked away from expensive gasoline-powered transportation. Businesses were forced to find cheaper transport for their goods (e.g. trains) or new methods of delivery of information (e.g. the internet). This came to a head in 2008 as oil prices skyrocketed in the first half of the year (with growth of 36.3% during the year) while the economy tanked in the second half. The 2008 financial crisis caused massive job losses, which shrunk consumer spending. Businesses adjusted to lower demand and this reduction in consumer and business spending meant fewer goods needed to be shipped across the country, damaging the trucking industry. The combined effect caused total vehicle miles to drop for the first time in over two decades, down 1.8% to 2.98 trillion miles in 2008 from 3.03 trillion miles in 2007.

Total vehicle miles continued to slide in 2009 to an estimated 2.96 trillion miles, as the global recession's effect continued reverberating throughout the economy, shrinking consumer and business spending. However, the rate of decline was lessened by the low price of oil observed over the year, which helped the struggling trucking industry by lowering costs and inducing more demand. The economy began to recover from 2010 through 2013, leading to a steady increase in total vehicle miles, except for 2011, when high oil prices caused a slight dip. Strong economic growth for most of the five years and significant declines in the world price of oil have supported the trucking industry and encouraged individuals to drive more. The world price of crude oil declined 47.2% in 2015, 15.7% in 2016 and 10.2% in 2019. The explosive popularity of ride-sharing services has added more cars to the road, contributing significantly to the number of vehicle miles.

Nonetheless, total vehicle miles declined substantially in 2020 as individuals were urged to stay home and avoid travel. This was to minimize the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus). Many states encouraged consumers to work from home, limiting commuting. Additionally, other businesses closed utterly, limiting the number of shipments needed. Further, individuals canceled their vacations and limited their long-distance trips. This trend reversed in 2021 as coronavirus vaccines were approved and were distributed. This enabled many employees to return to the office, increasing commute-related driving and subsequently total vehicle miles. Total vehicle miles traveled are set to go up with more restrictions scaled back while more companies have required their employees to be in the office again which is set to help boost up more people making trips in the year and in turn, boost up total vehicle miles traveled in both 2022 and 2023. Even with a slice of total companies still offering remote options, which does limit total miles taken in the years ahead from their full potential, the need for in-person appointments for more complicated matters like medical needs which require those being present in offices for such check-ups to get done effectively is set to keep more individuals needing to make trips in the period which is set to keep total vehicle miles up in the period too. Travel surges in popular months are expected to increase vehicle miles by 0.9% in 2024 and 0.4% in 2025. However, this growth will be moderated as more travelers choose to fly to international destinations.