This driver represents the number of registered annual births in the United States. Historical data is sourced from the National Center for Health Statistics and the number of births is forecasted with projections from the US Census Bureau.
The number of births in the US has steadily declined over the last decade. According to the CDC, the US is currently below replacement levels which means that more people are dying than being born, ultimately resulting in a slump in the total population. The slump in the number of births is a result of varying long-term demographic changes, from increased educational attainment among women to delays in marriage. In addition, a reduction in the teen birth rate and birth rates among foreign-born women has also contributed to a reduction in the number of births. While these factors remained present, the number of births has been steadily scaling down since 2014, with a seismic drop in 2020. A brief surge in birth rates following the fading of the pandemic in 2020 did occur in 2021, while it scaled up slightly in 2022 as the country returned to normal again. But the presence of inflation, beginning in 2021 and escalating since then, had pressured the number of births in 2023 with it scaling down by 2.1% in the year as more people had to either delay or forego starting a family because of economic factors on them or for more personal reasons unrelated to such factors. However, the number of births is set to scale up slightly in 2024 with such factors remaining present but with a potential for inflation to eventually scale down, couples that were held back from starting or expanding their family will be even more encouraged to do so.
As the economy continues to expand and wage growth follows the tigh...