Divorce Rate

Contrary to popular belief, the divorce rate in the United States has steadily fallen over the past two decades. This is mainly attributable to falling marriage rates, as fewer marriages means fewer potential divorces. The growing population of women with high school and college education have also contributed to falling divorce rates. Typically, teenage marriages are much more likely to end in divorce than other marriages. Comparatively, research from the National Center for Family and Marriage Research shows that highly educated women have a low propensity to divorce. The recession has had an unclear effect on the divorce rate. On one hand, divorce is expensive, and a drop in disposable income caused by the recession would prevent couples from going through with a divorce. In addition, financial difficulties exasperate existing marriage problems, leading couples to take the step of divorce. In 2009, the divorce rate remained stagnant and rose the following year.

Moreover, according to data from the Pew Research Center, the share of American adults that have never been married has reached a record high of an estimated 33.0%, constraining the number of marriages, and thus the potential divorce rate. As more couples have sought relatively nontraditional lifestyles, such as cohabitation and raising children outside of marriage, the share of married adults declined. This trend, in turn, limited the prevalence of divorces. Demonstrating this trend, 28.0% of adults who have never been married aged between 25 and 54 live with their partner, according to the Pew Research Center.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has had a substantial effect on the divorce rate, which declined 14.8% in 2020 alone. The decline took place as many individuals postponed the decision to marry or divorce when the pandemic hit. Consequently, the marriage rate also declined 16.9% in 2020. The rollout of coronavirus vaccines in 2021 has facilitated the economic recovery. Improvements in the economy have contributed to a resumption in certain social activities. IBISWorld estimates that the divorce rate increased 8.7% in 2021, rebounding from coronavirus lows in 2020. After decreasing 4.0% during 2022, the divorce rate increased 4.0% during 2023. In 2024 and 2025, the divorce rate will decrease.