Crime Rate

The crime rate has been steadily falling for more than two decades, likely due to continual improvements in the standard of living, as well as the gradual aging of the US population. Teenagers and young adults have historically been the nation’s most crime-prone demographic. For instance, the years with the highest crime rates (the late 1980s and early 1990s) coincided with the teenage and young-adult years of the “baby boomer” generation, the largest generation in the country, at the time. Now, that generation has aged into late adulthood and the crime rate has steadily declined. Over the second half of the 20th century, economic downturns coincided with spikes in crime. Tough economic conditions caused people to look for other ways to make money, through burglary, drug dealing or other illegal methods. However, violent crimes do not simultaneously increase at a statistically significant level.

Additionally, the most recent recession in 2008 and 2009 broke from this trend, with crime falling faster than in the boom years. Sociologists expected the high unemployment rate to lead to at least a rise in property crimes, but both property and violent crimes fell quickly in 2009 and 2010. The total drop of 5.4% in 2009 represented the largest single-year decline since 1999. Several theories exist explaining the drop. For one, the high unemployment rate means more homes remained occupied throughout the day, which helped deter burglaries. In addition, the massive decline in wealth that occurred due to the recession may have presented fewer attractive targets for potential robbers.

According to data from the Congressional Research Service (CRS), while violent crime has been trending downward since 1991, some years experienced a spike in homicide rates or violent crimes, causing the crime rate to exhibit some volatility. Moreover, the CRS cites several factors, including the “Ferguson effect,” for fluctuations in the crime rate. For example, the “Ferguson effect” may result in a spike in the crime rate, due to negative media attention regarding police officers being involved with unlawful deaths, potentially limiting the incidence of proactive policing. This has been particularly apparent in 2020 following multiple highly publicized police-involved deaths that led to nationwide protesting and rioting and a 4.6% increase in violent crime in 2020 alone.

Despite the increase in violent crime, property crime declined an estimated 6.2% in 2020. Similar to the previous recession, this could be attributed to a high unemployment rate and working from home, resulting in more homes occupied throughout the day. In particular, in response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, state and local governments issued stay-at-home orders and other social distancing restrictions. Due to the coronavirus continuing to threaten the health of the population, many employers have opted for work-from-home, resulting in an estimated decrease in property crime. In 2022, the crime rate increased 5.2%, led by a jump in property crime. Still, over the five years to 2024, the overall crime rate is expected to fall 1.7%.