Adult Obesity Rate

2020-2025 Compound Growth: 1.5%

Forecast Value for 2030: 35.79 people per 100 individuals

2025-2030 Compound Growth: 1.1%

This driver measures the percentage of US citizens aged 18 and older who are considered obese based on their body mass index (BMI). Data is sourced from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Analysis

The obesity rate in the United States among adults has consistently increased. The most common causes of obesity are from overeating and physical inactivity. However, obesity may also be influenced by genetics, metabolism, environment, behavior and culture. According to the CDC, additional contributing factors relating to US society include food and physical activity environment, education and skills and food marketing and promotion. Obesity is associated with poorer health outcomes as various medical conditions from diabetes, heart disease, stroke to some types of cancer often can emerge from it for those unable to keep these rates in check especially as they get older.

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) has further introduced a sedentary lifestyle through mandated stay-at-home orders and business closures. Obesity levels went up by 1.6% in 2020 as many people had to comply with stay-at-home mandates which left a lot more people working at their desks with remote options easing up their commutes that were part of their routines but leading to more people lessening their daily physical routines that involved them having to go outside more thoroughly and instead left more people staying indoors to avoid getting into contact with the virus. With these factors entailed, obesity rates went up during the first year of the pandemic, likely due to stress surrounding the virus coupled with a lack of mobility from the stay-at-home orders which restricted what individuals can do both indoors and outdoors with the lack of a vaccine making it harder for those just to safely go outside without being put more at-risk with the virus and its side effects on those unvaccinated too. In addition, food marketing and an emphasis on consumption have driven an attitude around eating large portions and excess of such items which has remained a top concern in the years even before the pandemic as this compounded with the pandemic only resulted in this problem staying a problem especially with more people not moving as much because of the lockdowns which raises more risks of weight gain if they do eat only these foods too.

While such mandates have since been lifted from 2020, these issues like food insecurity and the popularity of junk foods remain a factor that have continually and concurrently increased the rates of obesity in Americans, especially among those who lack access to stores with a higher assortment of healthier foods especially as unhealthy junk foods are often popular because of their tastes and flavor while being priced competitively with healthy foods too. As such, factors like these have contributed to obesity rates staying up in the period with the pandemic alike playing a role into these rates staying up with factors like the strong prevalence of junk foods in the market has shaped many diets alike as these items contain more unhealthy ingredients which means they have to get burned off more thoroughly to avoid them becoming fat. The lasting effects of the gradual consumption of these items have in turn made it harder for those just to lose weight especially for those not working out as they should be, which has led to rates of obesity going up in the period as the longer process it takes to lose weight in contrast with the easier process it also takes for those to gain weight has led to such rates going up more thoroughly. While there was a stagnation of growth in these rates in 2022 from 2021 which can be connected to such mandates going away as more people feel comfortable going out again with the distribution of the vaccine making them protected and safer against the virus, these rates remain elevated historically from past years which is a sign of the process it will take for these rates to go down more thoroughly. Obesity rates have continued to rise from 2023 to 2025, largely due to the high availability of unhealthy processed foods. The absence of stronger regulations on these foods has allowed them to dominate the food market, contributing significantly to the ongoing increase in obesity.