Industries with the Biggest Decline in Exports in the UK in 2025

1. Hard Coal Mining in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -58.0%

Over the five years through 2022-23, hard coal mining revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 26.2%. Before COVID-19 hit, coal prices were inching downwards as demand for coal from electricity generators fell. The drop in sales and revenue has contributed to a sharp drop in the number of UK coal mines in the UK, with numerous mining licences expiring.

The COVID-19 outbreak accelerated the closure of coal mines in the UK; however, as the pandemic started to wind down, coal prices rose in response to supply chain disruptions. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also played a... Learn More

2. Mattress Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -50.3%

The Mattress Manufacturing industry is fragmented, providing ample opportunity for smaller manufacturers to compete. Demand for mattresses primarily hinges on residential property transactions and capital expenditure on housing. These factors are closely tied to the economic climate and overall confidence in the economy. Trends in the service sector, specifically downstream demand from hotels, also influence our business. The number of visitor nights, which affects the frequency of mattress replacements, depends on consumer confidence and real household disposable income. Significantly, the surge in e-commerce has strengthened the mattress industry, as online retailers can operate at a lower cost than physical stores,... Learn More

3. Fertiliser & Nitrogen Compound Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -12.5%

Over the five years through 2022-23, the Fertiliser and Nitrogen Compound Manufacturing industry's revenue is set to swell at a compound annual rate of 10.6% to £2.7 billion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has inflated natural gas prices, a key feedstock in fertiliser production, significantly disrupting operations. High fertiliser prices have forced farmers to adapt by increasing their spreading efficiency, reducing the amount of fertiliser farmers need. Even though output has been slashed, high fertiliser prices have still boosted industry revenue.

Despite soaring natural gas prices eating into profit, manufacturers have begun optimising output to reduce costs, meet lower demand and... Learn More

4. Petroleum Refining in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -8.0%

A number of petroleum refiners have altered their production to focus on diesel as the new primary fuel. Diesel is more fuel efficient than petrol and until recently was considered more environmentally friendly. Nevertheless, both petrol and diesel face rising competition from alternatively fuelled vehicles due to their reduced emissions, lowering demand for industry products.

Industry revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.7% over the five years through 2023-24 to £55.5 billion, including forecast growth of 4.1% in 2023-24. The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant contraction in demand for fuel. Global border and travel restrictions took... Learn More

5. Seafood Processing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -7.5%

Seafood processors' revenue is projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 0.5% to £3.8 billion over the five years through 2023-24, including growth of 3.6% in 2023-24, when the average profit margin will be 3.3%. The COVID-19 pandemic punctured revenue in 2020-21 due to the closure of restaurants. Domestic demand conditions have been bleak, as the rising cost-of-living increased inflationary pressures and higher selling prices made seafood products less affordable. Despite this, increasing awareness of the health benefits of consuming seafood pushed back against severe market pressures. Fish catch volumes have declined because of rising costs for fishermen... Learn More

6. Sanitary Product Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -7.1%

The Sanitary Product Manufacturing industry is challenged by companies restructuring their operations and moving production overseas to take advantage of lower production costs. Stronger brands face competition from low-cost alternatives and higher input costs, putting pressure on prices and squeezing profitability. Despite a temporary surge in sales toilet paper, tissues and other personal-care items when COVID-19 hit (UK consumers stockpiled goods as they feared shortages), revenue dipped in 2020-21, with lockdown measures cutting into demand from businesses. Industry revenue will fall at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2022-23 to £2.7 billion, including a 3.5%... Learn More

7. Dye & Pigment Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -7.1%

The Dye and Pigment Manufacturing industry's revenue is set to contract at a compound annual rate of 3.3% over the five years through 2023-24 to £1.1 billion. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a marked decline in sales of dyes and pigments to downstream manufacturers, causing revenue to slump. Sales of dyes and pigments to paper and cosmetics manufacturers were hit especially hard, as both industries significantly reduced their production capacity.

Titanium dioxide is a key input in paint. However, titanium prices soared in 2022 when Russia (a major global exporter of titanium) invaded Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine also caused energy... Learn More

8. Electrical Appliance Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -7.1%

Uncertainty since the Brexit vote, compounded by further disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has caused consumers to reduce discretionary spending, weighing on demand for electrical appliances. Nonetheless, strong demand from residential construction activity has stemmed the overall fall in revenue. As such, industry revenue is expected to have fallen at a compound annual rate of 1.8% over the five years through 2022-23 to £1.4 billion, including a forecast decline of 2% in the current year.

Policy support for the UK housing market has stimulated residential construction activity, aiding demand for industry products. During the current year, demand... Learn More

9. Carpentry & Joinery Product Manufacturing in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -6.7%

Revenue has climbed at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2022-23 to £5.6 billion. Economic concerns associated with Brexit and the 3% increase in stamp duty imposed on buy-to-let and second homes have slowed expansion in residential building construction and caused the number of residential property transactions to dip. Activity in the commercial construction sector has been subdued, weighing on growth.

Significant disruptions caused by the pandemic and lockdown restrictions resulted in revenue declining during 2020-21. Following a bounce back in 2021-22, economic conditions worsened in 2022-23 owing to further disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict... Learn More

10. Chemical & Fertiliser Mineral Mining in the UK

Decline in Exports for 2025: -5.4%

The Chemical and Fertiliser Mineral Mining industry's revenue has expanded at a compound annual rate of 1.1% over the past five years. The industry's production has shifted considerably as the largest mineral extractor, Cleveland Potash, changed its mine's production from muriate of potash to sulphate of potash (polyhalite) in 2018, causing revenue to fall as the company had to ramp up production. The two other major companies in the industry, Schlumberger Oilfield and Fluorsid British Fluorspar have also shifted production, with Schlumberger opening a new mine and Fluorsid moving mining operations from the western to the eastern portion of its... Learn More