Population Aged 14 & Younger

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to increase by 0.6% during 2023-24, to reach 4,814,605 people. This growth is largely due to rebounding net migration, which is returning to pre-pandemic levels. Net migration was constrained over the two years through 2020-21, due to border closures, which prevented many workers and migrants, many of which have young families, from coming to Australia, causing this population group to be constrained. However, this growth rate remains below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting the residual effect of the pandemic on population patterns.

Over the past five years, the population aged 14 and younger has trended upwards, albeit at a far slower rate than the average of the past decade. Over the longer term, strong growth in the birth rate since 2008-09 has bolstered the number of people in this age group. An overall increase in net migration prior to COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to steady growth in younger Australians. Ongoing declines in the child mortality rate in Australia is another long-term factor contributing to growth in this population segment.

The number of births has been volatile over the past five years, reflecting the uncertainty of the pandemic. Housing shortages and high inflation have added further complications, which has weighed on growth in this population segment. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2023-24.