Marriage Rate

IBISWorld estimates that the marriage rate will decline at a compound annual rate of 3.6% over the five years through 2022-23, to 7.7 persons marrying per 1,000 people. The historical trend for marriage in England and Wales has been one of decline as attitudes towards marriage are changing and the median age for marriage continues to rise. Less people believe in the requirement for marriage before starting a family and increasing income equality between men and women means more people are willing to be independent. Women are also more career-focused, leaving marriage and families to a much later age. According to the latest data from the ONS, the current median age for marriage is estimated at 34.3 for men and 31.9 for women in 2019, a stark difference from 1975 when the median ages were 28.8 and 26.2 years respectively. These days, couples are more comfortable with the idea of co-habiting without the need to take the extra step to marriage. The types of marriages are rapidly changing as well and now less than 30% of marriages are religious services, compared to the previous decade.

An increase in immigration has supported marriage rates as individuals arriving in the United Kingdom from foreign countries with stronger cultural values on marriage are more likely to marry than that of the general UK population. In 2014-15, the marriage rate rose due to the legalisation of same-sex marriage from 29 March 2014, with this number of same-sex marriages being included in the total rate from that year on. Although same-sex marriages account for a very small proportion of total marriages, approximately 3.1% in 2019 according to the latest data from the ONS, rates have remained steady while opposite-sex marriage rates have fallen.

In 2020-21, the marriage rate is expected to have fallen by 58.2%, to 3.2 persons marrying per 1,000 people. This was due to the impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak. The United Kingdom’s response to the coronavirus included lockdown measures such as stay at home advice, forced closures and a temporary ban on weddings under almost all circumstances since the UK’s lockdown began on 23 March 2020. The ONS have estimated that approximately 73,600 weddings and same-sex civil partnership ceremonies were postponed during the first three months of lockdown between March 2020 and June 2020. It is important to note that these figures exclude the cancelled wedding ceremonies due to the coronavirus restrictions. The number and the allowance of weddings has fluctuated with further lockdowns and the tier systems.

However, IBISWorld expects that in 2021-22 the marriage rate is rise by 116.7%, to 6.9 persons marrying per 1,000 people. Weddings of up to 15 people were allowed to occur from 12 April 2021. While on 17 May 2021 weddings of up to 30 people were permitted to occur. Furthermore, all limits on the number of people allowed to attend weddings, civil partnerships and receptions were lifted in England from 19 July 2021. This expected to be facilitated through the reopening of the domestic and global economy. The rate of marriage is projected to continue to grow into the current year, reaching 7.7 persons per 1,000, which is set to be the first full year without coronavirus related disruptions since 2018-19.