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Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand - Market Research Report (2013-2028)

Matthew Reeves Matthew Reeves Melbourne, Australia Last Updated: October 2023 ANZSIC A0160NZ

Revenue

$15.3bn

2023-24

$15.3bn

Past 5-Year Growth

Profit

$X.Xbn

Employees

24,607

Businesses

14,464

Wages

$X.Xbn

Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand industry analysis

Dairy cattle farmers have experienced mixed trading conditions in recent years. Improving global supply and demand conditions allowed for a strong recovery in the milk prices that dairy processors offer to farmers. Dairy cattle numbers have declined as farmers have contended with drought conditions, while efficiency improvements have allowed for greater milk yields per cow. Nevertheless, milk production has dipped overall. Supply constraints both in New Zealand and worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic have boosted dairy product prices and farmgate milk prices. Overall, industry revenue is expected to fall at an annualised 1.3% over the five years through 2023-24, to $15.3 billion. Revenue is anticipated to plummet 15.0% in 2023-24, with weaker demand from China causing an oversupply of whole milk powder.

Revenue for dairy farmers depends heavily on milk production and prices. National milk production has fluctuated due to unfavourable seasonal conditions and a slump in the national dairy cattle herd. Meanwhile, COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions constrained global supply. Border restrictions reduced employment in New Zealand, which, along with unfavourable weather conditions, have weighed on milk production since 2021-22. Farmgate milk prices reached a record high in 2021-22, but have subsequently fallen away in the face of a mismatch in global supply and demand. A jump in the cost of inputs – like feed and fertiliser – has weakened profit margins in recent years.

Dairy cattle farming revenue is projected to return to growth over the coming years. Farmgate milk prices will continue to recover from recent declines as global demand and supply imbalances even out. While domestic per capita dairy consumption is forecast to contract, demand from overseas markets is likely to tick upwards. Higher demand will encourage farmers to expand production, boosting revenue. Revenue is forecast to rise at an annualised 4.1% over the five years through 2028-29, to $18.7 billion. Climbing farmgate prices and moderating input costs will bolster profitability for dairy farmers.

Trends and Insights

  • New Zealand's milk production has dipped overall due to volatile weather conditions and falling herd numbers. Despite a spike in global dairy prices and record farmgate prices, profit margins have dwindled due to dropping demand overseas.
  • Drinking milk and cream has been on the rise as a share of revenue. This trend has been driven by strong demand for UHT drinking milk and cream in major export markets like China and Indonesia.
  • Waikato and Taranaki are the two largest dairy cattle farming regions in New Zealand. These regions benefit from favourable rainfall patterns, rich soil and proximity to export ports.
  • Market share concentration is low. Despite climbing consolidation, most dairy cattle farms remain small-scale, family-owned operations with one or two farms.

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Industry Statistics and Trends

Market size and recent performance (2013-2028)

Industry revenue has declined at a CAGR of 1.0 % over the past five years, to reach an estimated $15.3bn in 2023.

Trends and Insights

Milk production across New Zealand has fluctuated but dipped overall

  • Dairy cattle farmers have faced volatile weather conditions. Both droughts and floods have reduced pasture, causing overall milk production to dwindle and limiting growth in per cow milk yields.
  • Additional trends and insights available with purchase
Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand
Revenue (2013-2028)
IBISWorld Logo Source: IBISWorld

Industry outlook (2024-2029)

Market size is projected to grow over the next five years.

Trends and Insights

Milk production and prices will recover alongside demand

  • Going forward, higher downstream demand, particularly from export markets, will encourage dairy cattle farmers to expand their milk production, supporting revenue recovery.

Biggest companies in the Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand

Company
Market Share (%)
2024
Revenue ($m)
2024
Dairy Holdings Limited
181.9

To view the market share and analysis for all 1 top companies in this industry, view purchase options.

Products & Services Segmentation

Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand
Products & Services
IBISWorld Logo Source: IBISWorld

Industry revenue is measured across several distinct product and services lines, including Milk and cream concentrates, Cheese, protein and other dairy products and Butter and other dairy spreads. Milk and cream concentrates is the largest segment of the Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand.

Trends and Insights

Production of milk and cream concentrates has dipped thanks to weakened demand from China

  • This segment includes raw milk sold for manufacturing into concentrated milk and cream products, like powdered whole and skim milk, cream, buttermilk and infant formulas.
  • More insights available in the full report

Table of Contents

About this industry

Industry definition

Industry operators primarily farm dairy cattle. The industry excludes operators that primarily undertake cattle agistment services.

What's included in this industry?

Dairy cattle farmingRaw cattle milk production

Companies

Dairy Holdings Limited

Purchase this report to view all 1 major companies in this industry.

Related Terms

ANHYDROUS MILK FATMILK SOLIDSSTOCKFEED

Industry Code

ANZSIC 2006

ANZSIC 0160 - Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand

Performance

Get an indication of the industry's health through historical, current and forward-looking trends in the performance indicators that make or break businesses.

Analyst insights

New Zealand's milk production has dipped overall due to volatile weather conditions and falling herd numbers. Despite a spike in global dairy prices and record farmgate price...

In this chapter (4)

  • Current Performance
  • Outlook
  • Volatility
  • Life Cycle

Key metrics

  • Annual Revenue, Recent Growth, Forecast, Revenue Volatility
  • Number of Employees, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Employee
  • Number of Businesses, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Business
  • Total Profit, Profit Margin, Profit per Business

Charts

  • Revenue, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Employees, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Businesses, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Profit, including historical (2013-2023)
  • Industry Volatility vs. Revenue Growth
  • Industry Life Cycle

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in supply, demand and current events that are driving current industry performance
  • Expected trends, economic factors and ongoing events that drive the industry's outlook
  • Key success factors for businesses to overcome volatility
  • How contribution to GDP, industry saturation, innovation, consolidation, and technology and systems influence the industry's life cycle phase.

Products and Markets

Learn about an industry's products and services, markets and trends in international trade.

Analyst insight

Drinking milk and cream has been on the rise as a share of revenue. This trend has been driven by strong demand for UHT drinking milk and cream in major export markets like C...

In this chapter

  • Products & Services
  • Major Markets

Key metrics

  • Largest market segment and value in 2023
  • Product innovation level

Charts

  • Products & services segmentation in 2023
  • Major market segmentation in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Trends impacting the recent performance of the industry's various segments
  • Innovations in the industry's product or service offering, specialization or delivery method
  • Key factors that successful businesses consider in their offerings
  • Buying segments and key trends influencing demand for industry products and services

Geographic Breakdown

Discover where business activity is most concentrated in an industry and the factors driving these trends to find opportunities and conduct regional benchmarking.

Analyst insights

Waikato and Taranaki are the two largest dairy cattle farming regions in New Zealand. These regions benefit from favourable rainfall patterns, rich soil and proximity to expo...

In this chapter (1)

  • Business Locations

Charts

  • Share of revenue, establishment, wages and employment in each region
  • Share of population compared to establishments in each region in 2023

Tables

  • Number and share of establishments in each region in 2023
  • Number and share of revenue each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of wages each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of employees in each region in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Geographic spread of the industry across Asia Pacific, and trends associated with changes in the business landscape
  • Key success factors for businesses to use location to their advantage

Competitive Forces

Get data and insights on what's driving competition in an industry and the challenges industry operators and new entrants may face, with analysis built around Porter's Five Forces framework.

Analyst insights

Market share concentration is low. Despite climbing consolidation, most dairy cattle farms remain small-scale, family-owned operations with one or two farms.

In this chapter (4)

  • Concentration
  • Barriers to Entry
  • Substitutes
  • Buyer & Supplier Analysis

Key metrics

  • Industry concentration level
  • Industry competition level and trend
  • Barriers to entry level and trend
  • Substitutes level and trend
  • Buyer power level and trend
  • Supplier power level and trend

Charts

  • Market share concentration among the top 4 suppliers from 2018-2023
  • Supply chain including upstream supplying industries and downstream buying industries, flow chart

Detailed analysis

  • Factors impacting the industry’s level of concentration, such as business distribution, new entrants, or merger and acquisition activity.
  • Key success factors for businesses to manage the competitive environment of the industry.
  • Challenges that potential industry entrants face such as legal, start-up costs, differentiation, labor/capital intensity and capital expenses.
  • Key success factors for potential entrants to overcome barriers to entry.
  • Competitive threats from potential substitutes for the industry’s own products and services.
  • Key success factors for how successful businesses can compete with substitutes.
  • Advantages that buyers have to keep favorable purchasing conditions.
  • Advantages that suppliers have to maintain favorable selling conditions.
  • Key success factors for how businesses can navigate buyer and supplier power.

Companies

Learn about the performance of the top companies in the industry.

Analyst insights

No major players operate in the Dairy Cattle Farming industry. While farmers are consolidating, most farms are owner-operated with one or two properties.

In this chapter

  • Market Share Concentration
  • Companies
  • Company Spotlights

Charts

  • Industry market share by company in 2019 through 2023
  • Major companies in the industry, including market share, revenue, profit and profit margin in 2023
  • Overview of Dairy Holdings Limited's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Description and key data for Dairy Holdings Limited, and factors influencing its performance in the industry

External Environment

Understand the demographic, economic and regulatory factors that shape how businesses in an industry perform.   

Analyst insights

The Dairy Industry Restructuring Act 2001 was enacted to establish the Fonterra Co-operative, in which farmer-shareholders own a portion equivalent to their output contributio...

In this chapter

  • External Drivers
  • Regulation & Policy
  • Assistance

Key metrics

  • Regulation & policy level and trend
  • Assistance level and trend

Charts

  • Regulation & Policy historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 
  • Assistance historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 

Detailed analysis

  • Demographic and macroeconomic factors influencing the industry, including Regulation & Policy and Assistance
  • Major types of regulations, regulatory bodies, industry standards or specific regulations impacting requirements for industry operators
  • Key governmental and non-governmental groups or policies that may provide some relief for industry operators.

Financial Benchmarks

View average costs for industry operators and compare financial data against an industry's financial benchmarks over time. 

Analyst insights

Profit margins have taken a hit over recent years. Farmgate milk prices have been dropping sharply and input costs remain elevated due to supply chain disruptions.

In this chapter

  • Cost Structure
  • Financial Ratios
  • Key Ratios

Key metrics

  • Profit margin, and how it compares to the sector-wide margin
  • Average wages, and how it compares to the sector-wide average wage
  • Largest cost component as a percentage of revenue
  • Industry average ratios for days' receivables, industry coverage and debt-to-net-worth ratio

Charts

  • Average industry operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Average sector operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Investment vs. share of economy

Data tables

  • Cash Flow & Debt Service Ratios (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Employee (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Establishment (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Average Wage (2013-2028)
  • Wages/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Establishments per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • IVA/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Imports/Demand (2013-2028)
  • Exports/Revenue (2013-2028)

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in the cost component for industry operators and their impact on industry costs and profitability 

Key Statistics

Industry Data

Data Tables

Including values and annual change:

  • Revenue (2013-2028)
  • IVA (2013-2028)
  • Establishments (2013-2028)
  • Enterprises (2013-2028)
  • Employment (2013-2028)
  • Exports (2013-2028)
  • Imports (2013-2028)
  • Wages (2013-2028)

Top Questions Answered

Unlock comprehensive answers and precise data upon purchase. View purchase options.

What is the market size of the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand in 2024?

The market size of the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand is $15.3bn in 2024.

How many businesses are there in the Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand industry in 2023?

There are 14,464 businesses in the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand, which has declined at a CAGR of 0.3 % between 2018 and 2023.

Has the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand grown or declined over the past 5 years?

The market size of the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand has been declining at a CAGR of 1.0 % between 2018 and 2023.

What is the forecast growth of the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand over the next 5 years?

Over the next five years, the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand is expected to grow.

What are the biggest companies in the Dairy Cattle Farming market in New Zealand?

The biggest company operating in the Dairy Cattle Farming market in New Zealand is Dairy Holdings Limited

What does the Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand include?

Dairy cattle farming and Raw cattle milk production are part of the Dairy Cattle Farming industry.

Which companies have the highest market share in the Dairy Cattle Farming in New Zealand?

The company holding the most market share in New Zealand is Dairy Holdings Limited.

How competitive is the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand?

The level of competition is moderate and increasing in the Dairy Cattle Farming industry in New Zealand.

Related Industries

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Competitors

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Complementors

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Methodology

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Our analysts start with official, verified and publicly available sources of data to build the most accurate picture of each industry. Analysts then leverage their expertise and knowledge of the local markets to synthesize trends into digestible content for IBISWorld readers. Finally, each report is reviewed by one of IBISWorld’s editors, who provide quality assurance to ensure accuracy and readability.

IBISWorld relies on human-verified data and human-written analysis to compile each standard industry report. We do not use generative AI tools to write insights, although members can choose to leverage AI-based tools within the platform to generate additional analysis formats.

What data sources do IBISWorld analysts use?

Each industry report incorporates data and research from government databases, industry-specific sources, industry contacts, and our own proprietary database of statistics and analysis to provide balanced, independent and accurate insights.

Key data sources in New Zealand include:

  • Statistics New Zealand
  • New Zealand Company Register
  • Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment

Analysts also use industry specific sources to complement catch-all sources, although their perspective may focus on a particular organization or representative body, rather than a clear overview of all industry operations. However, when balanced against other perspectives, industry-specific sources provide insights into industry trends.

These sources include:

  • Industry and trade associations
  • Industry federations or regulators
  • Major industry players annual or quarterly filings

Finally, IBISWorld’s global data scientists maintain a proprietary database of macroeconomic and demand drivers, which our analysts use to help inform industry data and trends. They also maintain a database of statistics and analysis on thousands of industries, which has been built over our more than 50-year history and offers comprehensive insights into long-term trends.

How does IBISWorld forecast its data?

IBISWorld’s analysts and data scientists use the sources above to create forecasts for our proprietary datasets and industry statistics. Depending on the dataset, they may use regression analysis, multivariate analysis, time-series analysis or exponential smoothing techniques to project future data for the industry or driver. Additionally, analysts will leverage their local knowledge of industry operating and regulatory conditions to impart their best judgment on the forecast model.

IBISWorld prides itself on being a trusted, independent source of data, with over 50 years of experience building and maintaining rich datasets and forecasting tools. We are proud to be the keystone source of industry information for thousands of companies across the world.

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