Unlike most other commodities, steel is a value-added product marketed based on its shape; grade, such as product quality and specification; and application. As a result, the price of steel varies widely across both product lines, hot-rolled and cold-rolled, and country lines. This report uses the weighted average price of hot-rolled band steel products, produced in three major markets, including China, the United States and Western Europe. This steel product price is used as a proxy for a general price level. Data for steel production levels are sourced from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), while monthly prices for various steel products are sourced from SteelBenchmarker and the World Bank. The index has a base year of 2000 and data is presented as the average of monthly figures.
Steel prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors. Supply and demand dynamics form the core, with economic cycles and consumption patterns in key sectors playing crucial roles. On the demand side, steel is heavily used in the construction, automotive and machinery manufacturing industries, so changes in these industries’ performances impact demand for steel and thus steel prices. It’s important to note that China alone consumes approximately half of global finished steel products, so changes in China’s economy have a significant impact on steel prices.
On the supply side, manufacturing capacities, raw material costs and government regulations impact the availability of steel globally. With China producing mor than half of global steel, any changes in Chinese government policies related to environmental regulations or exports impact the global supply of steel. The global price of iron ore is also a critical determinant of steel prices, as iron represents up to 99% of steel composition. With more than half of global iron ore being produced in Australia and Brazil, production capacity and new exploration projects in these regions significantly impact the global price of iron ore.
Steel prices are projected to decline between 2026-2027 before expe...