Value of Merchandise Trade Exports

IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to fall by 7.6% in 2024-25, to an estimated $495.0 billion. This decline is driven largely by falling global commodity prices, especially for crucial export commodities like coal, natural gas, iron ore and wheat. Global energy and grain supply chains have largely recovered from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, and prices are set to ease this year as a result. The value of the Australian dollar is also set to trend upwards, which will further erode export value. Export volumes of key mining and agricultural commodities like oil, wheat and barley are also set to decline during the year. However, demand for other commodities like copper, bauxite and beef are projected to rise, somewhat constraining the fall in merchandise trade export values.

Over the past five years, the value of merchandise trade exports has risen, driven by a beneficial global context and growth in domestic production volumes. Mining and agricultural commodities compose the bulk of Australian exports, which means that trends in these sectors dictate the value of merchandise trade exports in Australia. Global supply shocks, driven by a stretched global supply chain during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, led to a surge in demand for Australian mining and agricultural exports. In particular, the value of wheat and LNG exports soared, as many countries scrambled to replace energy and agricultural commodities that were traditionally sourced from Russia or Ukraine. These limitations to global supplies drove up the price of commodity exports in Australia, especially for mining commodities like iron ore and coal, which account for a high proportion of export value.