Net Migration

IBISWorld forecasts net migration to decline by 140,700 people in 2023-24, to 377.4 thousand people. Net migration levels are expected to fall short of their peak in the previous year, however levels are still anticipated to remain elevated in 2023-24. Australia’s borders were initially reopened to international visitors in February 2022. The continued easing of international border controls following the COVID-19 outbreak and relatively strong national vaccination rates placed significant upward pressure on net migration in 2022-23. Migration levels are expected to remain relatively strong in the current year aided by continued arrivals from overseas students and other temporary residents. The Federal Government announced a minor downward variation of 5000 places for the 2023-24 permanent migration program from the previous year, subduing permanent arrivals.

The Federal Government’s strict international border controls, which were in put place from March 2020 to stop the flow of COVID-19 in the country, put significant constraints on migration to Australia. Visa holders were required to wait for permission to travel to Australia, while the Federal Government encouraged prospective immigrants to reconsider applying for visas at this time. Furthermore, the number of flights to Australia was significantly reduced, limiting the ability of visa holders to enter the country. In addition, different approaches to viral containment in other regions encouraged some overseas citizens living in Australia to return back home to avoid further outbreaks and lockdowns, placing further downward pressure on net migration.